Kusukela ngo-2021 kuya ku-2022, kube nokukhula okusheshayo emakethe ye-semiconductor yomhlaba wonke ngenxa yokuvela kwezidingo ezikhethekile ngenxa yokuqubuka kwe-COVID-19. Kodwa-ke, njengoba izimfuno ezikhethekile ezidalwe ubhubhane lwe-COVID-19 zaphela engxenyeni yokugcina ka-2022 futhi zangena kokunye kokuwohloka komnotho okubi kakhulu emlandweni ngo-2023.
Kodwa-ke, i-Great Recession kulindeleke ukuthi ihlehle ngo-2023, kanti kulindeleke ukululama okuphelele kulo nyaka (2024).
Eqinisweni, uma ubheka ukuthunyelwa kwe-semiconductor njalo ngekota kuzo zonke izinhlobo ezahlukahlukene, i-Logic isivele yalidlula inani eliphakeme elidalwe yizidingo ezikhethekile ze-COVID-19 futhi yabeka umlando omusha ophezulu. Ukwengeza, i-Mos Micro ne-Analog kungenzeka ifinyelele izinga eliphezulu lomlando ngo-2024, njengoba ukwehla okudalwe ukuphela kwezidingo ezikhethekile ze-COVID-19 kungabalulekile (Umfanekiso 1).
Phakathi kwazo, i-Mos Memory yehle kakhulu, yabe isiphuma ngaphansi kwekota yokuqala (Q1) ka-2023 futhi yaqala uhambo lwayo oluya ekululameni. Kodwa-ke, kubonakala kusadinga isikhathi eside ukufinyelela inani eliphakeme lezidingo ezikhethekile ze-COVID-19. Kodwa-ke, uma i-Mos Memory idlula isiqongo sayo, inani lokuthunyelwa kwe-semiconductor ngokungangabazeki lizofinyelela umlando omusha. Ngokubona kwami, uma lokhu kwenzeka, kungashiwo ukuthi imakethe ye-semiconductor ilulame ngokugcwele.
Kodwa-ke, uma ubheka izinguquko ekuthunyelweni kwe-semiconductor, kuyabonakala ukuthi lo mbono unephutha. Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi, ngenkathi ukuthunyelwa kwe-Mos Memory, esilulamayo, sekutholakele, ukuthunyelwa kwe-Logic, okufinyelele izinga eliphezulu lomlando, kusemazingeni aphansi kakhulu. Ngamanye amazwi, ukuvuselela ngempela imakethe ye-semiconductor yomhlaba wonke, ukuthunyelwa kwamayunithi anengqondo kufanele kukhuphuke kakhulu.
Ngakho-ke, kulesi sihloko, sizohlaziya ukuthunyelwa kwe-semiconductor kanye nenani lezinhlobo ezahlukene zama-semiconductors kanye nama-semiconductors aphelele. Okulandelayo, sizosebenzisa umehluko phakathi kokuthunyelwa kwe-Logic kanye nokuthunyelwa njengesibonelo ukukhombisa ukuthi ukuthunyelwa kwama-wafers we-TSMC kusalela kanjani naphezu kokululama ngokushesha. Ukwengeza, sizoqagela ukuthi kungani lo mehluko ukhona futhi siphakamise ukuthi ukubuyiselwa okuphelele kwemakethe ye-semiconductor yomhlaba wonke kungase kubambezeleke kuze kube ngu-2025.
Sengiphetha, ukubukeka kwamanje kokutholwa kwemakethe ye-semiconductor "kuyinkohliso" ebangelwa ama-GPU we-NVIDIA, anamanani aphezulu kakhulu. Ngakho-ke, kubonakala sengathi imakethe ye-semiconductor ngeke ilulame ngokugcwele kuze kube yilapho izisekelo ezifana ne-TSMC zifinyelela umthamo ogcwele kanye nokuthunyelwa kwe-Logic kufinyelela ukuphakama okusha komlando.
I-Semiconductor Shipment Value and Quantity Analysis
Umfanekiso 2 ubonisa izitayela zenani lokuthunyelwa kanye nenani lezinhlobo ezahlukahlukene zama-semiconductors kanye nayo yonke imakethe ye-semiconductor.
Umthamo wokuthunyelwa kwe-Mos Micro ukhuphuke ngekota yesine ka-2021, wehla ngekota yokuqala ka-2023, waqala ukusimama. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, inani lokuthunyelwa alizange libonise ushintsho olubalulekile, lihlale licishe lifinyelele ikota yesithathu kuya kweyesine ka-2023, ngokuncipha kancane.
Inani lokuthunyelwa kwe-Mos Memory laqala ukwehla kakhulu kusukela ngekota yesibili ka-2022, lehla ngekota yokuqala ka-2023, futhi laqala ukukhuphuka, kodwa laphinde labuyela cishe ku-40% yenani eliphakeme engxenyeni yesine yalo nyaka. Ngaleso sikhathi, inani lokuthunyelwa selibuyele cishe ku-94% wezinga eliphakeme. Ngamanye amazwi, izinga lokusetshenziswa kwefekthri labakhiqizi benkumbulo libhekwa njengelisondela kumthamo ogcwele. Umbuzo uthi zizokwenyuka izintengo ze-DRAM ne-NAND flash.
Inani lokuthunyelwa kwe-Logic likhuphuke ngekota yesibili ka-2022, lehla ngekota yokuqala ka-2023, laphinde lakhuphuka, lafinyelela endaweni ephezulu yomlando engxenyeni yesine yalowo nyaka. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, inani lokuthunyelwa kwempahla lenyuke kakhulu engxenyeni yesibili ka-2022, lase lehla laya cishe ku-65% yenani eliphakeme engxenyeni yesithathu ka-2023 futhi lahlala liphansi engxenyeni yesine yalowo nyaka. Ngamanye amazwi, kunomehluko omkhulu phakathi kokuziphatha kwevelu yokuthunyelwa kanye nenani lokuthunyelwa ku-Logic.
Inani lokuthunyelwa kwe-analog lenyuke ngekota yesithathu ka-2022, lehla ngekota yesibili ka-2023, futhi kusukela ngaleso sikhathi liye lahlala lizinzile. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ngemuva kokuphakama kwekota yesithathu ka-2022, inani lokuthunyelwa liqhubekile nokwehla kwaze kwaba yikota yesine ka-2023.
Ekugcineni, inani eliphelele lokuthunyelwa kwe-semiconductor lehle kakhulu ukusuka kwikota yesibili ka-2022, lehla ngekota yokuqala ka-2023, futhi laqala ukukhuphuka, labuyela cishe ku-96% yenani eliphakeme engxenyeni yesine yalo nyaka. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, inani lokuthunyelwa kwempahla nalo lehle kakhulu lisuka kwikota yesibili ka-2022, lehla ngekota yokuqala ka-2023, kodwa selihlale liphansi, cishe ngama-75% yenani eliphakeme.
Kusukela kulokhu okungenhla, kubonakala sengathi i-Mos Memory iyindawo yenkinga uma kucatshangelwa inani lokuthunyelwa kuphela, njengoba selibuyele cishe ku-40% yenani eliphakeme. Kodwa-ke, uma sibheka kabanzi, singabona ukuthi i-Logic iyinkinga enkulu, njengoba naphezu kokufinyelela okuphezulu komlando ngenani lokuthunyelwa, inani lokuthunyelwa limile cishe ku-65% yenani eliphakeme. Umthelela walo mehluko phakathi kwenani lokuthunyelwa kwe-Logic kanye nenani libonakala lidlulela kuyo yonke inkambu ye-semiconductor.
Kafushane, ukutholwa kabusha kwemakethe ye-semiconductor yomhlaba wonke kuncike ekutheni izintengo ze-Mos Memory ziyakhuphuka yini nokuthi inani lokuthunyelwa kwamayunithi we-Logic likhuphuka kakhulu yini. Njengoba izintengo ze-DRAM ne-NAND zikhuphuka ngokuqhubekayo, inkinga enkulu kuzoba ukukhulisa inani lokuthunyelwa kwamayunithi we-Logic.
Okulandelayo, sizochaza ukuziphatha kwenani lokuthunyelwa kwe-TSMC nokuthunyelwa kwe-wafer ukuze sibonise ngokucacile umehluko phakathi kwenani lokuthunyelwa kwe-Logic kanye nokuthunyelwa kwe-wafer.
Inani Lokuthunyelwa Kwekota Kwe-TSMC kanye Nokuthunyelwa Kwe-Wafer
Umfanekiso wesi-3 ukhombisa ukwehlukaniswa kokuthengiswa kwe-TSMC ngamanodi kanye nenqubo yokuthengisa ye-7nm nangaphezulu kwezinqubo zekota yesine ka-2023.
I-TSMC ibeka i-7nm nangaphezulu njengama-node athuthukile. Ngekota yesine ka-2023, i-7nm yaba ngu-17%, i-5nm yaba ngu-35%, ne-3nm yaba ngu-15%, isamba esingu-67% sama-node asethuthukile. Ukwengeza, ukuthengiswa kwekota kwama-node athuthukile bekulokhu kukhuphuka kusukela ngekota yokuqala ka-2021, kube nokwehla kanye ngekota yesine ka-2022, kodwa kwaphuma phansi futhi kwaqala ukukhuphuka ngekota yesibili ka-2023, kwafinyelela umlando omusha ophezulu ingxenye yesine yalo nyaka.
Ngamanye amazwi, uma ubheka ukusebenza kokuthengisa kwama-node athuthukile, i-TSMC yenza kahle. Ngakho-ke, kuthiwani ngenzuzo yokuthengisa yekota yonke ye-TSMC kanye nokuthunyelwa kwe-wafer (Umfanekiso 4)?
Ishadi levelu yokuthunyelwa yekota ye-TSMC kanye nokuthunyelwa kwe-wafer kucishe kulingane. Inyuke kakhulu ngesikhathi sebhamuza le-IT ka-2000, lehla ngemuva kokushaqeka kwe-Lehman ka-2008, futhi yaqhubeka nokwehla ngemuva kokuqhuma kwebhamuza lememori lika-2018.
Kodwa-ke, ukuziphatha ngemuva kwenani eliphakeme lesidingo esikhethekile engxenyeni yesithathu ka-2022 kuyahluka. Inani lokuthunyelwa kwempahla lenyuke lafinyelela ku- $ 20.2 billion, labe lehla kakhulu kodwa laqala ukuphindela emuva ngemuva kokuphuma ku- $ 15.7 billion engxenyeni yesibili ka-2023, lafinyelela ku- $ 19.7 billion ngekota yesine yalowo nyaka, okungama-97% yenani eliphakeme.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukuthunyelwa kwe-wafer ngekota kukhuphuke kuma-wafers ayizigidi ezingama-3.97 engxenyeni yesithathu ka-2022, kwase kwehla, kwehlela kuma-wafers ayizigidi ezingama-2.92 ngekota yesibili ka-2023, kodwa kwahlala kucaba ngemuva kwalokho. Ngisho nakwikota yesine yalowo nyaka ofanayo, nakuba inani lama-wafers athunyelwayo lehla kakhulu ukusuka phezulu, lisahleli kuma-wafers ayizigidi ezingu-2.96, ukuncipha kwama-wafers angaphezu kwesigidi ukusuka phezulu.
I-semiconductor evame kakhulu ekhiqizwa yi-TSMC yi-Logic. Ukuthengiswa kwe-TSMC kwekota yesine ka-2023 kwama-node athuthukile kufinyelele ezingeni eliphezulu elisha lomlando, nokuthengiswa sekukonke kubuyele ku-97% wenani eliphakeme lomlando. Kodwa-ke, ukuthunyelwa kwe-wafer ngekota kwakusengaphezu kwama-wafer ayizigidi ezingu-1 ngaphansi kwenkathi ephakeme kakhulu. Ngamanye amazwi, izinga lokusebenzisa imboni ye-TSMC lilonke licishe libe ngama-75%.
Mayelana nemakethe ye-semiconductor yomhlaba iyonke, ukuthunyelwa kwe-Logic kwehle kwaya cishe ku-65% wenani eliphakeme ngesikhathi sesidingo esikhethekile se-COVID-19. Ngokuqhubekayo, ukuthunyelwa kwe-TSMC kwama-wafer njalo ngekota kwehle ngamawafa angaphezu kwesigidi ukusuka phezulu, izinga lokusebenzisa imboni lilinganiselwa ku-75%.
Uma sibheka phambili, ukuze imakethe ye-semiconductor yomhlaba wonke ilulame ngempela, ukuthunyelwa kwe-Logic kufanele kukhuphuke kakhulu, futhi ukufeza lokhu, izinga lokusebenzisa izisekelo eziholwa yi-TSMC kumele lisondele kumthamo ogcwele.
Ngakho, kuzokwenzeka nini ngempela lokhu?
Ukubikezela Amanani Okusebenzisa Ama-Major Foundries
NgoDisemba 14, 2023, inkampani yocwaningo yase-Taiwan i-TrendForce yabamba isemina ethi "Industry Focus Information" e-Grand Nikko Tokyo Bay Maihama Washington Hotel. Emhlanganweni, umhlaziyi we-TrendForce u-Joanna Chiao uxoxe "nge-TSMC's Global Strategy kanye ne-Semiconductor Foundry Market Outlook ka-2024." Phakathi kwezinye izihloko, u-Joanna Chiao ukhulume ngokubikezela amazinga okusetshenziswa kwe-Foundry (Figure
Kuzonyuka nini ukuthunyelwa kwe-Logic?
Ingabe lo 8% ubalulekile noma awusho lutho? Yize lona kuwumbuzo ocashile, ngisho nango-2026, ama-wafer angama-92% asele asazosetshenziswa ama-chips angewona ama-AI semiconductor. Iningi lalokhu kuzoba ama-Logic chips. Ngakho-ke, ukuze ukuthunyelwa kwe-Logic kukhuphuke futhi izisekelo ezinkulu eziholwa yi-TSMC zifinyelele umthamo ogcwele, isidingo semishini kagesi efana nama-smartphones, ama-PC, namaseva kumele sikhule.
Kafushane, ngokusekelwe esimweni samanje, angikholwa ukuthi ama-semiconductors e-AI afana nama-GPU e-NVIDIA azoba umsindisi wethu. Ngakho-ke, kukholakala ukuthi imakethe ye-semiconductor yomhlaba wonke ngeke ilulame ngokugcwele kuze kube ngu-2024, noma ibambezeleke kuze kube ngu-2025.
Nokho, kukhona elinye ithuba (elinethemba) elingasichitha lesi sibikezelo.
Kuze kube manje, wonke ama-semiconductors e-AI achaziwe abebhekise kuma-semiconductors afakwe kumaseva. Kodwa-ke, manje sekunomkhuba wokwenza ukucutshungulwa kwe-AI kumatheminali (emaphethelweni) njengamakhompyutha omuntu siqu, ama-smartphones, namathebulethi.
Izibonelo zifaka i-Intel's AI PC ehlongozwayo kanye nemizamo ye-Samsung yokwakha ama-smartphones e-AI. Uma lokhu kudumile (ngamanye amazwi, uma kwenzeka okusha), imakethe ye-semiconductor ye-AI izokhula ngokushesha. Eqinisweni, inkampani yocwaningo yase-US i-Gartner ibikezela ukuthi ekupheleni kuka-2024, ukuthunyelwa kwama-smartphones e-AI kuzofinyelela amayunithi ayizigidi ezingu-240, futhi ukuthunyelwa kwama-AI PC kuzofinyelela amayunithi ayizigidi ezingu-54.5 (ngokwereferensi kuphela). Uma lesi sibikezelo sigcwaliseka, isidingo se-Cutting-Edge Logic sizokhuphuka (ngokwenani lokuthunyelwa kanye nenani), futhi amanani okusetshenziswa kwezisekelo ezifana ne-TSMC azokhuphuka. Ukwengeza, isidingo sama-MPU nenkumbulo nakho kuzokhula ngokushesha.
Ngamanye amazwi, lapho umhlaba onjalo ufika, ama-semiconductors e-AI kufanele abe umsindisi wangempela. Ngakho-ke, kusukela manje kuqhubeke, ngithanda ukugxila kuzitayela zama-semiconductors we-AI onqenqemeni.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Apr-08-2024