Kusukela ngo-2021 kuya ku-2022, kube nokukhula okusheshayo emakethe ye-semiconductor yomhlaba wonke ngenxa yokuvela kwezidingo ezikhethekile ezibangelwe ukuqubuka kwe-COVID-19. Kodwa-ke, njengoba izidingo ezikhethekile ezibangelwe ubhubhane lwe-COVID-19 zaphela engxenyeni yokugcina ka-2022 futhi zangena kwenye yezinkinga ezinkulu zokwehla kwamandla omnotho emlandweni ngo-2023.
Kodwa-ke, uKuwohloka Okukhulu Kwezomnotho kulindeleke ukuthi kufinyelele ezingeni eliphansi ngo-2023, kanti kulindeleke ukuthi kube nokululama okuphelele kulo nyaka (2024).
Eqinisweni, uma sibheka ukuthunyelwa kwe-semiconductor kwekota ngezinhlobo ezahlukene, i-Logic isivele idlule inani eliphakeme elibangelwe yizidingo ezikhethekile ze-COVID-19 futhi ibeke inani eliphakeme elisha elingokomlando. Ngaphezu kwalokho, i-Mos Micro kanye ne-Analog cishe zizofinyelela inani eliphakeme elingokomlando ngo-2024, njengoba ukwehla okubangelwe ukuphela kwezidingo ezikhethekile ze-COVID-19 kungabalulekile (Isithombe 1).
Phakathi kwazo, iMos Memory ibhekane nokwehla okukhulu, yabe isiwela phansi kwikota yokuqala (Q1) ka-2023 futhi yaqala uhambo lwayo lokululama. Kodwa-ke, kubonakala sengathi kusadinga isikhathi esiningi ukufinyelela esicongweni sezidingo ezikhethekile ze-COVID-19. Kodwa-ke, uma iMos Memory idlula esicongweni sayo, inani lokuthunyelwa kwe-semiconductor ngokungangabazeki lizofinyelela esicongweni esisha somlando. Ngombono wami, uma lokhu kwenzeka, kungashiwo ukuthi imakethe ye-semiconductor isilulame ngokugcwele.
Kodwa-ke, uma sibheka izinguquko ekuthunyelweni kwe-semiconductor, kusobala ukuthi lo mbono uyiphutha. Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi, ngenkathi ukuthunyelwa kwe-Mos Memory, esekululama, sekubuyiselwe kakhulu, ukuthunyelwa kwe-Logic, okufinyelele amazinga aphezulu omlando, kusesemazingeni aphansi kakhulu. Ngamanye amazwi, ukuze kuvuselelwe ngempela imakethe ye-semiconductor yomhlaba wonke, ukuthunyelwa kwamayunithi e-logic kumele kwande kakhulu.
Ngakho-ke, kulesi sihloko, sizohlaziya ukuthunyelwa kwe-semiconductor kanye nobuningi bezinhlobo ezahlukene ze-semiconductor kanye ne-total semiconductors. Okulandelayo, sizosebenzisa umehluko phakathi kokuthunyelwa kwe-Logic kanye nokuthunyelwa njengesibonelo ukukhombisa ukuthi ukuthunyelwa kwe-TSMC kwama-wafers kusalele emuva kanjani naphezu kokululama okusheshayo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, sizoqagela ukuthi kungani lo mehluko ukhona futhi siphakamise ukuthi ukululama okuphelele kwemakethe ye-semiconductor yomhlaba wonke kungase kubambezeleke kuze kube ngu-2025.
Ekuphetheni, ukubonakala kwamanje kokululama kwemakethe ye-semiconductor "kuyinkohliso" ebangelwa ama-GPU e-NVIDIA, anamanani aphezulu kakhulu. Ngakho-ke, kubonakala sengathi imakethe ye-semiconductor ngeke ilulame ngokugcwele kuze kube yilapho izinkampani ezisungula izinto ezifana ne-TSMC zifinyelela umthamo ogcwele kanye nokuthunyelwa kwe-Logic kufinyelela amazinga amasha omlando.
Ukuhlaziywa Kwenani Lokuthunyelwa Kwe-semiconductor kanye Nobuningi
Isibalo 2 sibonisa izitayela zenani lokuthunyelwa kanye nobuningi bezinhlobo ezahlukene zama-semiconductor kanye nemakethe yonke yama-semiconductor.
Umthamo wokuthunyelwa kweMos Micro ufinyelele esicongweni kwikota yesine ka-2021, wehla kakhulu kwikota yokuqala ka-2023, futhi waqala ukusimama. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, inani lokuthunyelwa alizange libonise ushintsho olukhulu, lahlala cishe liphansi kusukela kwikota yesithathu kuya kweyesine ka-2023, ngokuncipha okuncane.
Inani lokuthunyelwa kwe-Mos Memory laqala ukwehla kakhulu kusukela kwikota yesibili ka-2022, lancipha kwikota yokuqala ka-2023, futhi laqala ukukhuphuka, kodwa laphinde lafika cishe ku-40% wenani eliphakeme kwikota yesine yonyaka ofanayo. Okwamanje, inani lokuthunyelwa seliphinde lafika cishe ku-94% wezinga eliphakeme. Ngamanye amazwi, izinga lokusetshenziswa kwefektri kwabakhiqizi bememori libhekwa njengelisondela ekugcwaleni okugcwele. Umbuzo uwukuthi amanani e-DRAM ne-NAND flash azokhuphuka kangakanani.
Inani lokuthunyelwa kwe-Logic lifinyelele esicongweni kwikota yesibili ka-2022, lehla kakhulu kwikota yokuqala ka-2023, labe seliphinde labuya, lafinyelela esicongweni esisha somlando kwikota yesine yonyaka ofanayo. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, inani lokuthunyelwa lehle kakhulu kwikota yesibili ka-2022, labe selincipha laya cishe ku-65% wenani eliphakeme kwikota yesithathu ka-2023 futhi lahlala linjalo kwikota yesine yonyaka ofanayo. Ngamanye amazwi, kukhona umehluko omkhulu phakathi kokuziphatha kwenani lokuthunyelwa kanye nenani lokuthunyelwa ku-Logic.
Inani lokuthunyelwa kwe-analog lifinyelele esicongweni kwikota yesithathu ka-2022, lehla kakhulu kwikota yesibili ka-2023, futhi kusukela lapho lihlale lizinzile. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ngemva kokufika esicongweni kwikota yesithathu ka-2022, inani lokuthunyelwa laqhubeka nokwehla kwaze kwaba yikota yesine ka-2023.
Ekugcineni, inani lokuthunyelwa kwe-semiconductor lilonke lehle kakhulu kusukela kwikota yesibili ka-2022, lancipha kakhulu kwikota yokuqala ka-2023, futhi laqala ukukhuphuka, labuyela cishe ku-96% wenani eliphakeme kakhulu kwikota yesine yonyaka ofanayo. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, inani lokuthunyelwa nalo lehle kakhulu kusukela kwikota yesibili ka-2022, lancipha kakhulu kwikota yokuqala ka-2023, kodwa kusukela lapho lihlale liphansi, cishe ku-75% wenani eliphakeme kakhulu.
Kusukela ngenhla, kubonakala sengathi i-Mos Memory yindawo eyinkinga uma kubhekwa inani lokuthunyelwa kuphela, njengoba selibuyele cishe ku-40% wenani eliphakeme. Kodwa-ke, uma sibheka kabanzi, singabona ukuthi i-Logic iyinkinga enkulu, njengoba naphezu kokufinyelela amazinga aphezulu emlandweni enanini lokuthunyelwa, inani lokuthunyelwa liye lahlala cishe ku-65% wenani eliphakeme. Umthelela walo mehluko phakathi kwenani lokuthunyelwa kwe-Logic kanye nenani ubonakala ufinyelela kuyo yonke insimu ye-semiconductor.
Ngamafuphi, ukululama kwemakethe ye-semiconductor yomhlaba wonke kuncike ekutheni amanani e-Mos Memory ayanda yini nokuthi inani lokuthunyelwa kwamayunithi e-Logic liyanda kakhulu yini. Njengoba amanani e-DRAM ne-NAND ekhuphuka njalo, inkinga enkulu izoba ukwandisa inani lokuthunyelwa kwamayunithi e-Logic.
Okulandelayo, sizochaza indlela i-TSMC ephethe ngayo inani lokuthunyelwa kanye nokuthunyelwa kwe-wafer ukuze sibonise umehluko phakathi kwenani lokuthunyelwa kwe-Logic kanye nokuthunyelwa kwe-wafer.
Inani Lokuthunyelwa Kwekota le-TSMC kanye Nokuthunyelwa Kwe-Wafer
Isibalo 3 sibonisa ukuhlaziywa kokuthengisa kwe-TSMC nge-node kanye nomkhuba wokuthengisa wezinqubo ze-7nm nangaphezulu kwikota yesine ka-2023.
I-TSMC ibeka i-7nm nangaphezulu njengama-node athuthukile. Kwikota yesine ka-2023, i-7nm yayibalelwa ku-17%, i-5nm ingu-35%, kanye ne-3nm ingu-15%, okwenza ingqikithi ibe ngu-67% wama-node athuthukile. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuthengiswa kwama-node athuthukile kwekota ngayinye bekulokhu kukhula kusukela kwikota yokuqala ka-2021, kwabhekana nokwehla kanye kwikota yesine ka-2022, kodwa kwancipha futhi kwaqala ukukhuphuka futhi kwikota yesibili ka-2023, kwafinyelela ezingeni eliphakeme lomlando kwikota yesine yonyaka ofanayo.
Ngamanye amazwi, uma ubheka ukusebenza kokuthengisa kwama-node athuthukile, i-TSMC isebenza kahle. Ngakho-ke, kuthiwani ngemali engenayo yokuthengisa yekota yonke ye-TSMC kanye nokuthunyelwa kwe-wafer (Isithombe 4)?
Ishadi lenani lokuthunyelwa kwekota le-TSMC kanye nokuthunyelwa kwe-wafer kuyafana. Lafinyelela esicongweni ngesikhathi sebhamuza le-IT lika-2000, lehla ngemva kokushaqeka kukaLehman ka-2008, futhi laqhubeka nokwehla ngemva kokuqhuma kwebhamuza lememori lika-2018.
Kodwa-ke, ukuziphatha ngemva kokuphakama kwesidingo esikhethekile kwikota yesithathu ka-2022 kuyahluka. Inani lokuthunyelwa lifinyelele ku-$20.2 billion, labe selincipha kakhulu kodwa laqala ukwehla ngemuva kokwehla lafinyelela ku-$15.7 billion kwikota yesibili ka-2023, lafinyelela ku-$19.7 billion kwikota yesine yonyaka ofanayo, okuyi-97% yenani eliphakeme.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukuthunyelwa kwe-wafer kwekota kufinyelele ku-wafers eziyizigidi ezingu-3.97 kwikota yesithathu ka-2022, kwabe sekwehla, kwafinyelela ku-wafers eziyizigidi ezingu-2.92 kwikota yesibili ka-2023, kodwa kwahlala kungashintshi ngemva kwalokho. Ngisho nasekota yesine yonyaka ofanayo, yize inani lama-wafers athunyelwe lehla kakhulu kusukela esicongweni, lisalokhu liseku-wafers eziyizigidi ezingu-2.96, ukwehla kwama-wafers angaphezu kwesigidi esisodwa kusukela esicongweni.
I-semiconductor evame kakhulu ekhiqizwa yi-TSMC yi-Logic. Ukuthengiswa kwama-node athuthukile kwe-TSMC kwekota yesine ka-2023 kufinyelele ezingeni eliphezulu lomlando, kanti ukuthengiswa okuphelele kufinyelele ku-97% wezinga eliphezulu lomlando. Kodwa-ke, ukuthunyelwa kwama-wafer kwekota ngayinye kwakusengaphansi kwama-wafer angaphezu kwesigidi esisodwa kunangesikhathi esiphezulu. Ngamanye amazwi, izinga lokusetshenziswa kwefektri kwe-TSMC lilonke lingama-75% kuphela.
Ngokuphathelene nemakethe ye-semiconductor yomhlaba wonke iyonke, ukuthunyelwa kwe-Logic kwehle kwafinyelela cishe ku-65% wesikhathi esiphezulu ngesikhathi sesidingo esikhethekile se-COVID-19. Ngokuqhubekayo, ukuthunyelwa kwe-wafer kwekota kwe-TSMC kwehle ngama-wafer angaphezu kwesigidi esisodwa kusukela esicongweni, kanti izinga lokusetshenziswa kwefektri lilinganiselwa cishe ku-75%.
Uma sibheka phambili, ukuze imakethe yomhlaba wonke ye-semiconductor ilulame ngempela, ukuthunyelwa kwe-Logic kudingeka kwande kakhulu, futhi ukuze kufezwe lokhu, izinga lokusetshenziswa kwezindawo zokusekela eziholwa yi-TSMC kumele lifinyelele umthamo ogcwele.
Ngakho-ke, lokhu kuzokwenzeka nini ngempela?
Ukubikezela Amanani Okusetshenziswa Kwezindawo Ezinkulu Zokusungula Izinto
Ngomhlaka-14 Disemba 2023, inkampani yocwaningo yaseTaiwan iTrendForce ibambe iseminari ethi "Industry Focus Information" eGrand Nikko Tokyo Bay Maihama Washington Hotel. Kule seminari, umhlaziyi weTrendForce uJoanna Chiao uxoxe "ngeSu Lomhlaba Wonke le-TSMC kanye ne-Semiconductor Foundry Market Outlook ka-2024." Phakathi kwezinye izihloko, uJoanna Chiao ukhulume ngokubikezela amazinga okusetshenziswa kwe-foundry (Isithombe
Ukuthunyelwa kweLogic kuzokwanda nini?
Ingabe lokhu kungu-8% okubalulekile noma okungabalulekile? Nakuba lokhu kungumbuzo ocashile, ngisho nango-2026, ama-wafer asele angu-92% asazosetshenziswa ama-chip e-semiconductor angewona ama-AI. Iningi lalawa kuzoba ama-chip e-Logic. Ngakho-ke, ukuze ukuthunyelwa kwe-Logic kwande futhi izinkampani ezinkulu eziholwa yi-TSMC zifinyelele umthamo ogcwele, isidingo samadivayisi kagesi afana nama-smartphone, ama-PC, kanye namaseva kumele sande.
Ngamafuphi, ngokusekelwe esimweni samanje, angikholwa ukuthi ama-semiconductor e-AI afana nama-GPU e-NVIDIA azoba ngumsindisi wethu. Ngakho-ke, kukholelwa ukuthi imakethe yama-semiconductor yomhlaba wonke ngeke ilulame ngokugcwele kuze kube ngu-2024, noma ibambezeleke kuze kube ngu-2025.
Nokho, kukhona okunye okungenzeka (okunethemba) okungaguqula lesi sibikezelo.
Kuze kube manje, wonke ama-semiconductor e-AI achaziwe abekhuluma ngama-semiconductor afakwe kumaseva. Kodwa-ke, manje sekunomkhuba wokwenza ukucubungula i-AI kuma-terminal (ama-edge) njengamakhompyutha omuntu siqu, ama-smartphone, namathebulethi.
Izibonelo zifaka phakathi i-Intel AI PC ehlongozwayo kanye nemizamo ye-Samsung yokwakha ama-smartphone e-AI. Uma lawa ethandwa (ngamanye amazwi, uma kuvela ukusungula izinto ezintsha), imakethe ye-semiconductor ye-AI izokhula ngokushesha. Eqinisweni, inkampani yocwaningo yase-US i-Gartner ibikezela ukuthi ekupheleni kuka-2024, ukuthunyelwa kwama-smartphone e-AI kuzofinyelela amayunithi ayizigidi ezingu-240, kanti ukuthunyelwa kwama-PC e-AI kuzofinyelela amayunithi ayizigidi ezingu-54.5 (ngokwereferensi kuphela). Uma lesi sibikezelo sigcwaliseka, isidingo se-Logic esithuthukisiwe sizokhula (ngokwenani lokuthunyelwa kanye nobuningi), kanye namazinga okusetshenziswa kwama-foundries afana ne-TSMC azokhuphuka. Ngaphezu kwalokho, isidingo sama-MPU kanye nememori sizokhula ngokushesha.
Ngamanye amazwi, lapho kufika umhlaba onjalo, ama-semiconductor e-AI kufanele abe ngumsindisi wangempela. Ngakho-ke, kusukela manje kuqhubeke, ngingathanda ukugxila ezindleleni zama-semiconductor e-AI asezingeni eliphezulu.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Ephreli-08-2024